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Morning Edition, December 26, 2007 · Ten years after a bird flu virus first jumped directly from chickens to humans, killing six people in Hong Kong, a feared pandemic has yet to materialize.

Lately flu experts have even expressed optimism that the threat could be receding. But meanwhile, a dispute between rich and poor nations is blocking a vital effort to track what's happening with the bird flu virus.

Human cases of the bird flu virus, known as H5N1, have continued. In Pakistan, for example, the World Health Organization is currently investigating what could be the largest cluster of human-to-human transmission so far. A veterinarian and five members of his family are suspected cases, along with three others involved in culling infected chickens. Such clusters are rare, but they have occurred in Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia.

But it doesn't necessarily mean the world is moving closer to a pandemic, said Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in Bethesda, Maryland.

"There are those who say it's been around for 10 years and it hasn't happened yet. Therefore it just proves how difficult it is for it to happen," Fauci said. "Then there's another school of thought that says, 'hey, you know, it hasn't happened, but why should we keep giving it the chance to happen?'"

Experts worry that if H5N1 keeps circulating in poultry - occasionally infecting humans - the virus could mutate into a form easily transmitted from person to person. That would likely touch off a pandemic. Since up to 80 percent of people infected with H5N1 have died, it could be as bad as the 1918 pandemic that killed 50 million people.

But as 2007 comes to a close, there is actually good news about H5N1.

"We've got a bit of a plateauing," said David Nabarro, the chief U.N. flu coordinator at a meeting in Washington, D.C. "The number of human cases, which act as a sentinel, has slightly decreased. Human deaths have also decreased."

"So there's a question that the situation of the h-5-n-1 virus, at least, is not so serious," he said.

Even so, Nabarro said H5N1 is circulating in six countries. Nowhere is that more worrisome than in Indonesia, the world's fourth most populous nation. The WHO knows of 115 Indonesians infected by H5N1 so far, more than anywhere else.

New international health regulations require countries to share samples of flu viruses. But Indonesia initially refused to share new samples of H5N1. Dr. David Heymann, the WHO's assistant director-general of communicable diseases, said the government in Jakarta has shared about five different samples and specimens.

"From those specimens, (only) one of them produced a virus," he said.

Viruses in the other four specimens didn't survive, or not enough of them were present. That means the WHO and flu researchers around the world have no idea what mutations may be taking place in H5N1 as it circulates among Indonesia's countless chickens and 234 million of people.

Heymann said the problem arose a year ago, when Indonesia's president asked the health minister to develop a stockpile of flu vaccine produced from an Indonesian strain of H5N1.

"When the minister went to procure that vaccine, she found that the price that was being asked of her was the same price that was being asked in industrialized countries. She felt that that was an injustice," Heymann said.

Until rich countries guarantee Indonesia a discount on vaccines produced from its viruses, it won't share virus more samples. A year's worth of tense discussions have failed to resolve the impasse.

The UN's Nabarro said he understands Indonesia's position. He also sees why Indonesia and other developing countries do not want to rely on promises that they'll get their fair share of vaccines.

Nabarro said they worry that when a pandemic comes, the rich countries will say" "'Sorry, we need all the spare vaccine that's around the place for our people. We're going to have very little to spare for you poorer countries.'"

Resolving the dispute is one of the WHO's priorities for 2008.

Yeaaaaaaaah, virus evolution is a strange thing. It can be static for years and years and suddenly make the leap and go wild. I wouldn't cross it off the potential pandemics list yet. Quite worrying vis-a-vis the squabble over sharing the virus strain. I can see Indonesia's point though... what is it really going to get out of it?

i say we ditch all this and go back to mad cow disease!

give it time no ones song, give it time!

let's just revel in the possibility of a bird flu pandemic for the time being. Or be terrified. whichever you'd like is a-okay.

Has it seriously been 10 years?!

I guess it's possible that the pandemic has been prevented by the fact that our governments acted in a timely and sensible fashion, but... no, that's just not like them at all, especially since their official plan seemed to be "vaccinate everyone, or if there's not time, most people".

Can we start another healthscare though? It'll be fun. Someone, quick, pick an animal you'd like to see culled.

I don't think it's been 10 years since it was really big news...but I think it's been 10 years since it started being any kind of news at all.

Rabies, anyone?
In 2004, it seemed like every small child in SA was being bit, like this whole epidemic of rabid and ferocious packs of dogs leapt out of the brush and merciless bit and scratched innocent school-goers.

its funny, i occasionally wonder about bird flu. and SARS, lest we forget

so im glad you made this thread, now i know..

SARS!!

how the hell could we forget SARS?!
i remember, everyone went out and bought a face mask. you were just uncool if you didn't

It was a big cash grab!! I said that all along, from the start. Drug companies saw their opportunity, and got their puppets: the politicians, the medical establishment, and the media, to whip people up in a frothing hysteria. People were still quivering from 9-11 hysteria, so it weren't hard to do. I mean, what was 9-11 really? Two buildings fell down.

Oh wait, rich Americans were in those buildings, I guess it's the worst disaster in the history of the world then.

Once the bird flu worst case scenario 'extremely doubtful' but whatever had been transformed into 'inevitable' in excited minds, the drug companies rented some space to put all the gold bars the governments would send them.

Real experts ... not the media experts (you know, those regular bought off types with their fancy sites and glossy best-selling books), real experts always said that when a virus mutates it becomes less dangerous, and it had some serious mutating to do if it ever got to the point it passed between people. But this didn't sell books or newspapers, or drugs, so they kept that quiet ........

These bought-off media experts that swore up and down we were doomed in a year I'm sure come on today giving us more of their 'wisdom' on some other issue they know nothing about ...

Thx

we had it here a month ago or so. boring.

You're pissing on my parade.

You should look into it ...

* Gilead developed Tamiflu in 1996 and used F. Hoffman-La Roche for global development and marketing in exchange for royalties

* US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld was made Chairman of Gilead in 1997

* In 2003, Roche begins increasing Tamiflu production "in preparation for massive orders", with up to $2 billion from the US government (particularly the US Department of Defense, of which Rumsfeld is head of)

* It wasn't until December 2004 that WHO issued a warning "that bird flu will trigger an international pandemic that could kill up to 7 million people" . (I'm curious as to how the US government knew there would be a 'bird flu pandemic' and order Tamiflu a year before the World Health Organisation started warning people.)

* 2005, and the US government advises that "a super flu could kill up to" 2 million Americans. The Bush administration advises it's spent a year updating its plan on how to fight the next flu pandemic. Again, this update apparently started a full year after Roche began preparing for massive orders....


People around the world start going into panic mode. International governments begin stocking up on their supply of Tamiflu. Donald Rumsfeld, the US Secretary of Defense and also Chairman of Gilead, the creator of Tamiflu, rakes in the money from his shares in Gilead. I'm sure it's a coincidence that the US Department of Defense, of which Rumsfeld is head of, is behind most of the movement within America of causing panic about the bird flu, and stocking up on supplies to combat it..

Bird flu was an issue within the scientific community before the WHO said anything. JSTOR and EBSCO have said so.

Which isn't meant to downplay the entire corporate / government greed issue. I just want to talk about a virus. And dead people. Like when people had SARS and they were being forcibly quarantined. Illness if kind of funny like that. And weirder because it doesn't REALLY go away.

So don't be pissing on the parade.

I guess that goes for the rich school children, the rich janitors, the rich waitstaff, and the rich researchers, too.

Amazon.com: Fatal Contact: Bird Flu in America: DVD: Costa Ronin,Sara Wiseman,Brad Hills,Scott Cohen,Joely Richardson,Susan Brady,Kate Butler (II),Matthew Chamberlain,Justina Machado,Latham Gaines,David Aston,Geraline Knox,David Ramsey,Ann Cusack,Dwi

HAHAHAHA! to me thats proof that bird flu was nothing but a motherfucking hoax. lol

I am going to say we should get into a panic about leishmaniasis next. Mostly because I don't like dogs. I also really don't like gibbons. Maybe I could claim to have finally found the source of Ebola and it is in gibbons?

Oh ok, I dunno. Goya's Burial of the Sardine, perhaps. You know, under a dark sky, three days of harlequin costumes, bird masks, and accosting passerby ...

Ok but my point is ... well I can best demonstrate it this way, on the radio couple yrs ago, they were discussing Afghanistan, after some US air force planes mistakenly bombed Canadian soldiers, killing 3.

And an American called in and said, well, no worries, 1 American is worth 10 Canadians. And I think that's a common notion down there, that American lives are worth far more than other people. If two buildings like that went down in Russia, do you think the US would even blink? They'd wonder what all the fuss was about ........